Market Cycle Brief — June 25, 2026: BTC 33/100, Dow Jones Up 7.6
Market cycle indicators show Bitcoin in an extended phase across multiple timeframes, with a score of 32.8. Broader equity indices display mixed conditions, ranging from early to mid-cycle phases. Overall cycle telemetry remains stable with minimal score shifts across tracked assets.
Bitcoin
Cycle Score: 33/100, unchanged from the prior reading — model date 2026-06-25
| Cycle | Day | Phase |
|---|---|---|
| 4-year | 1312/1450 | extended |
| Yearly | 443/170 | extended |
| Weekly | 19/24 | extended |
Bitcoin cycle telemetry registers a score of 32.8 with a delta of 0, maintaining an extended phase across all tracked timeframes. The four-year cycle is on day 1312 of an expected 1450 days, while the yearly cycle sits at day 443 against an expected 170 days. Weekly cycle data shows day 19 of a 24-day expected length. Model outputs indicate stable positioning with no score deviation from the previous reading.
Movers
- Dow Jones: 24.9 → 32.5 (Δ +7.6) — The Dow Jones index shifted by 7.6, moving its score from 24.9 to 32.5.
- NASDAQ Composite: 40.7 → 40.5 (Δ -0.2) — The NASDAQ Composite recorded a delta of -0.2, adjusting its score from 40.7 to 40.5.
- DAX 40: 24.5 → 24.3 (Δ -0.2) — The DAX 40 index registered a delta of -0.2, shifting its score from 24.5 to 24.3.
News context
- Bitcoin just broke below the floor of its famous Rainbow Chart into the ‘BTC is dead’ zone — coindesk · negative
- Bitcoin ETP outflows push rolling one-year flows negative for first time since 2023: K33 — theblock · positive
- Cboe launches prediction market suite with binary option contracts on S&P 500 — theblock · negative
- Upheaval at the Ethereum Foundation has some of crypto’s biggest names feeling bullish — coindesk · positive
- Sweden's H100 shareholders greenlight acquisition deal to triple Bitcoin holdings — cointelegraph · positive
Recent headlines highlight mixed sentiment as Bitcoin breaks below a historical chart floor and records negative rolling ETP flows. A Swedish firm approved expanding its Bitcoin holdings while new prediction market contracts launched alongside shifting Ethereum Foundation sentiment.
Markets
| Market | Score | Δ | Phase | Model date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 32.8 | 0.0 | extended | |
| Ethereum | 32.8 | 0.0 | — | |
| XRP | 32.8 | 0.0 | — | |
| Solana | 32.8 | 0.0 | — | |
| Sui | 32.8 | 0.0 | — | |
| S&P 500 | 42.3 | -0.1 | mid | 2026-06-24 |
| NASDAQ Composite | 40.5 | -0.2 | mid | 2026-06-24 |
| Dow Jones | 32.5 | +7.6 | extended | 2026-06-24 |
| Russell 2000 | 49.8 | -0.1 | early | 2026-06-24 |
| DAX 40 | 24.3 | -0.2 | mid | 2026-06-24 |
| Nikkei 225 | 17.5 | -0.2 | mid | |
| FTSE 100 | 21.7 | -0.2 | mid | 2026-06-24 |
| NVIDIA | 46.2 | -0.1 | mid | 2026-06-24 |
| JP Morgan Chase | 50 | 0.0 | extended | 2026-06-24 |
| Gold | 48 | 0.0 | extended | 2026-06-24 |
| Silver | 48 | 0.0 | — | 2026-06-24 |
| Platinum | 58 | 0.0 | — | 2026-06-24 |
| US Dollar Index | 32.5 | 0.0 | extended | 2026-06-24 |
Methodology: How the cycle score works · Bitcoin live dashboard · Previous brief
Generated automatically from Ciklora's daily model outputs; reviewed weekly.
Ciklora is a research and educational tool. It is NOT a financial advisor, broker-dealer, or investment advisor. Signals are based on historical pattern analysis with limited sample sizes. Some assets use proxy models whose correlations can decay or invert in new regimes. Confidence modifier values are calibration factors, not certainty guarantees. Single-model and proxy outputs do not have a meaningful multi-model comparison. Past performance does not guarantee future results. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. If you need financial advice, consult a licensed financial advisor.