Market Cycle Brief — June 28, 2026: BTC 33/100, US Dollar Index Up 5.6
The four-year cycle is on day 1315 of an expected 1450 days, remaining in an extended phase. Model telemetry shows a stable score of 32.8 across major digital assets, while equity indices display varied cycle positioning.
Bitcoin
Cycle Score: 33/100, unchanged from the prior reading — model date 2026-06-28
| Cycle | Day | Phase |
|---|---|---|
| 4-year | 1315/1450 | extended |
| Yearly | 446/170 | extended |
| Weekly | 22/24 | extended |
Bitcoin telemetry registers a cycle score of 32.8 with a delta of 0. The four-year cycle is on day 1315 of an expected 1450 days, the yearly cycle is on day 446 of an expected 170 days, and the weekly cycle is on day 22 of an expected 24 days. All three timeframes currently register an extended phase.
Movers
- US Dollar Index: 32.5 → 38.1 (Δ +5.6) — The US Dollar Index shows a delta of 5.6, shifting its score from 32.5 to 38.1.
- NASDAQ Composite: 40.3 → 40.1 (Δ -0.2) — The NASDAQ Composite records a delta of -0.2, moving its score from 40.3 to 40.1.
- DAX 40: 24.2 → 24 (Δ -0.2) — The DAX 40 registers a delta of -0.2, adjusting its score from 24.2 to 24.
News context
- Average IBIT investor now down about 40% as spot bitcoin ETFs cap second-worst week on record — theblock · negative
- DCG-backed Yuma launches fund offering institutional exposure to Bittensor — cointelegraph · negative
- Tether putting $23 billion gold stockpile to work with bullion-backed loans — coindesk · positive
- Why a selloff in gold and silver is dragging bitcoin down — coindesk · negative
- Billionaire Jeremy Grantham Dismisses Bitcoin, Says Crypto Will Fade 'With a Whimper' — decrypt · positive
Headlines highlight institutional fund developments and stablecoin gold initiatives alongside commentary on recent market drawdowns. Model sentiment indicators reflect mixed reactions to asset performance and macroeconomic narratives.
Markets
| Market | Score | Δ | Phase | Model date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 32.8 | 0.0 | extended | |
| Ethereum | 32.8 | 0.0 | — | |
| XRP | 32.8 | 0.0 | — | |
| Solana | 32.8 | 0.0 | — | |
| Sui | 32.8 | 0.0 | — | |
| S&P 500 | 42.1 | -0.1 | mid | 2026-06-26 |
| NASDAQ Composite | 40.1 | -0.2 | mid | 2026-06-26 |
| Dow Jones | 32.4 | 0.0 | extended | 2026-06-26 |
| Russell 2000 | 49.5 | -0.1 | early | 2026-06-26 |
| DAX 40 | 24 | -0.2 | mid | 2026-06-26 |
| Nikkei 225 | 17.3 | -0.2 | mid | 2026-06-26 |
| FTSE 100 | 21.4 | -0.2 | mid | 2026-06-26 |
| NVIDIA | 45.9 | -0.1 | mid | 2026-06-26 |
| JP Morgan Chase | 50 | 0.0 | extended | 2026-06-26 |
| Gold | 48 | 0.0 | extended | 2026-06-26 |
| Silver | 48 | 0.0 | — | 2026-06-26 |
| Platinum | 58 | 0.0 | — | 2026-06-26 |
| US Dollar Index | 38.1 | +5.6 | extended | 2026-06-26 |
Methodology: How the cycle score works · Bitcoin live dashboard · Previous brief
Generated automatically from Ciklora's daily model outputs; reviewed weekly.
Ciklora is a research and educational tool. It is NOT a financial advisor, broker-dealer, or investment advisor. Signals are based on historical pattern analysis with limited sample sizes. Some assets use proxy models whose correlations can decay or invert in new regimes. Confidence modifier values are calibration factors, not certainty guarantees. Single-model and proxy outputs do not have a meaningful multi-model comparison. Past performance does not guarantee future results. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. If you need financial advice, consult a licensed financial advisor.