Market Cycle Brief — July 1, 2026: BTC 33/100, NASDAQ Composite Down 0.3
Market cycle indicators show extended phases across multiple timeframes with scores holding at 33. Equity and crypto indices registered minor downward shifts, while 0 assets moved upward. Conditions reflect a broad consolidation period across tracked markets.
Bitcoin
Cycle Score: 33/100, down 0.1 from the prior reading — model date 2026-07-01
| Cycle | Day | Phase |
|---|---|---|
| 4-year | 1318/1450 | extended |
| Yearly | 449/170 | extended |
| Weekly | 25/24 | extended |
Bitcoin's four-year cycle is on day 1318 of an expected 1450, placing it in an extended phase. The yearly cycle sits at day 449 of 170, and the weekly cycle is at day 25 of 24, both also extended. The model score adjusted by -0.1 to 32.7, with a display value of 33.
Movers
- NASDAQ Composite: 45.1 → 44.8 (Δ -0.3) — NASDAQ Composite score shifted from 45.1 to 44.8 with a delta of -0.3.
- Russell 2000: 49 → 48.8 (Δ -0.2) — Russell index score shifted from 49 to 48.8 with a delta of -0.2.
- DAX 40: 23.6 → 23.4 (Δ -0.2) — DAX score shifted from 23.6 to 23.4 with a delta of -0.2.
News context
- Trump pocketed more than $1 billion from crypto ties as industry headed toward slump — coindesk · negative
- Bitcoin under pressure below $60,000 as Japanese yen hits 40-year low against the U.S. dollar — coindesk · negative
- Sovereign funds see Bitcoin discount as entry point: MidChains CEO — cointelegraph · positive
- Trump Discloses Over $1.2 Billion in Crypto Earnings, $50M in Bitcoin Holdings — decrypt · negative
- President Trump’s financial disclosures show hundreds of millions in crypto-related income — theblock · positive
Headlines highlight political crypto disclosures alongside market pressure. Sovereign funds reportedly view current discounts as potential entry points.
Markets
| Market | Score | Δ | Phase | Model date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 32.7 | -0.1 | extended | |
| Ethereum | 32.7 | -0.1 | — | |
| XRP | 32.7 | -0.1 | — | |
| Solana | 32.7 | -0.1 | — | |
| Sui | 32.7 | -0.1 | — | |
| S&P 500 | 41.7 | -0.1 | mid | 2026-06-30 |
| NASDAQ Composite | 44.8 | -0.3 | mid | 2026-06-30 |
| Dow Jones | 32.1 | -0.1 | extended | 2026-06-30 |
| Russell 2000 | 48.8 | -0.2 | early | 2026-06-30 |
| DAX 40 | 23.4 | -0.2 | mid | 2026-06-30 |
| Nikkei 225 | 25.2 | -0.1 | mid | |
| FTSE 100 | 20.8 | -0.2 | mid | 2026-06-30 |
| NVIDIA | 45.4 | -0.1 | mid | 2026-06-30 |
| JP Morgan Chase | 50 | 0.0 | extended | 2026-06-30 |
| Gold | 48 | 0.0 | extended | 2026-06-30 |
| Silver | 48 | 0.0 | — | 2026-06-30 |
| Platinum | 58 | 0.0 | — | 2026-06-30 |
| US Dollar Index | 38.1 | 0.0 | extended | 2026-06-30 |
Methodology: How the cycle score works · Bitcoin live dashboard · Previous brief
Generated automatically from Ciklora's daily model outputs; reviewed weekly.
Ciklora is a research and educational tool. It is NOT a financial advisor, broker-dealer, or investment advisor. Signals are based on historical pattern analysis with limited sample sizes. Some assets use proxy models whose correlations can decay or invert in new regimes. Confidence modifier values are calibration factors, not certainty guarantees. Single-model and proxy outputs do not have a meaningful multi-model comparison. Past performance does not guarantee future results. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. If you need financial advice, consult a licensed financial advisor.