Market Cycle Brief — July 25, 2026: BTC 24/100, NVIDIA Up 8.7
The four-year cycle is in an extended phase at day 1342 of 1450, while the yearly cycle remains early at day 25 of 170. Weekly conditions show an extended phase at day 25 of 24. Telemetry indicates a slight score decline across assets, with the S&P benchmark and NVIDIA registering upward shifts.
Bitcoin
Cycle Score: 24/100, down 0.1 from the prior reading — model date 2026-07-25
| Cycle | Day | Phase |
|---|---|---|
| 4-year | 1342/1450 | extended |
| Yearly | 25/170 | early |
| Weekly | 25/24 | extended |
Bitcoin telemetry registers a cycle day of 1342 within a four-year framework expected to span 1450 days, placing the asset in an extended phase. The yearly cycle sits at day 25 of 170 in an early phase, while the weekly cycle tracks at day 25 of 24 in an extended phase. The current score reads 23.6, reflecting a delta of -0.1 from the previous score of 23.7, with a displayed score of 24.
Movers
- NVIDIA: 28.1 → 36.8 (Δ +8.7) — NVIDIA shows a score shift from 28.1 to 36.8, registering a delta of 8.7.
- S&P 500: 39.5 → 45 (Δ +5.5) — The S&P benchmark moves from a score of 39.5 to 45.0, reflecting a delta of 5.5.
- Ethereum: 18.7 → 16.6 (Δ -2.1) — Ethereum records a score change from 18.7 to 16.6, with a delta of -2.1.
News context
- Bitcoin falls under $64K as surging US bond yields boost Fed rate-hike odds — cointelegraph · negative
- Poolin was bitcoin's biggest mining pool and now it's filing for bankruptcy — coindesk · negative
- A $5 billion cluster has formed in bitcoin options. It tells a bullish story — coindesk · positive
- Former bitcoin miner Poolin files Chapter 11, sets $52 million floor bid for Texas operations — theblock · negative
- Bitcoin treasury companies sell up, repay debt, pivot to AI as share prices collapse — coindesk · negative
Reports indicate Bitcoin trading lower amid rising US bond yields and increased rate-hike expectations, alongside the bankruptcy filing of former mining pool Poolin. Options data highlights a large cluster formation, while treasury companies pivot toward AI and debt repayment.
Markets
| Market | Score | Δ | Phase | Model date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 23.6 | -0.1 | early | |
| Ethereum | 16.6 | -2.1 | — | |
| XRP | 16.6 | -2.1 | — | |
| Solana | 16.6 | -2.1 | — | |
| Sui | 16.6 | -2.1 | — | |
| S&P 500 | 45 | +5.5 | mid | 2026-07-24 |
| NASDAQ Composite | 23.3 | -0.3 | mid | 2026-07-24 |
| Dow Jones | 39.3 | 0.0 | extended | 2026-07-24 |
| Russell 2000 | 32.5 | -0.2 | mid | 2026-07-24 |
| DAX 40 | 27.3 | -0.1 | mid | 2026-07-24 |
| Nikkei 225 | 24.6 | -0.2 | late | 2026-07-24 |
| FTSE 100 | 15.9 | -0.2 | mid | 2026-07-24 |
| NVIDIA | 36.8 | +8.7 | mid | 2026-07-24 |
| JP Morgan Chase | 50 | 0.0 | extended | 2026-07-24 |
| Gold | 47 | 0.0 | extended | 2026-07-24 |
| Silver | 47 | 0.0 | — | 2026-07-24 |
| Platinum | 57 | 0.0 | — | 2026-07-24 |
| US Dollar Index | 32.5 | 0.0 | extended | 2026-07-24 |
Methodology: How the cycle score works · Bitcoin live dashboard · Previous brief
Generated automatically from Ciklora's daily model outputs; reviewed weekly.
Ciklora is a research and educational tool. It is NOT a financial advisor, broker-dealer, or investment advisor. Signals are based on historical pattern analysis with limited sample sizes. Some assets use proxy models whose correlations can decay or invert in new regimes. Confidence modifier values are calibration factors, not certainty guarantees. Single-model and proxy outputs do not have a meaningful multi-model comparison. Past performance does not guarantee future results. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. If you need financial advice, consult a licensed financial advisor.