Market Cycle Brief — July 31, 2026: BTC 48/100, Bitcoin Up 24.5
The four-year cycle is in an extended phase at day 1348 of 1450, while the yearly cycle remains early at day 31 of 170. Market telemetry shows a broad score increase across major digital assets, with Bitcoin registering a delta of 24.5. Equity indices display mixed phase conditions, ranging from mid-cycle to extended.
Bitcoin
Cycle Score: 48/100, up 24.5 from the prior reading — model date 2026-07-31
| Cycle | Day | Phase |
|---|---|---|
| 4-year | 1348/1450 | extended |
| Yearly | 31/170 | early |
| Weekly | 31/24 | extended |
Bitcoin telemetry indicates a score of 47.8, up from a previous reading of 23.3, reflecting a delta of 24.5. The asset is positioned in the early phase of its yearly cycle at day 31 of 170, while the four-year cycle sits at day 1348 of 1450 in an extended phase. The weekly cycle is also extended at day 31 of 24. The displayed score registers at 48.
Movers
- Bitcoin: 23.3 → 47.8 (Δ +24.5) — Bitcoin shows a delta of 24.5, moving from a previous score of 23.3 to 47.8.
- Ethereum: 16.3 → 40.8 (Δ +24.5) — Ethereum registers a delta of 24.5, shifting from 16.3 to a current score of 40.8.
- XRP: 16.3 → 40.8 (Δ +24.5) — XRP mirrors the same delta of 24.5, advancing from 16.3 to 40.8.
News context
- JPMorgan says crypto bill’s fading odds hurt outlook, warns parts could discourage institutional adoption — theblock · positive
- Fake staking site drains $8.5 million in XRP from dozens of investors promising easy yield — coindesk · negative
- Strategy books $8.2 billion Q2 loss on bitcoin price decline — coindesk · negative
- Quantum Solutions loses top Japan ETH treasury spot after another $1.9 million sale — theblock · negative
- ‘Paid to wait’: Bitcoin presses toward $65,000 as Treasuries out-yield the carry trade for only second time on record — theblock · positive
Headlines highlight mixed institutional sentiment, with regulatory uncertainty and corporate losses contrasting against yield comparisons favoring traditional assets. Security incidents involving digital asset platforms and treasury adjustments are also noted in recent reports.
Markets
| Market | Score | Δ | Phase | Model date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 47.8 | +24.5 | early | |
| Ethereum | 40.8 | +24.5 | — | |
| XRP | 40.8 | +24.5 | — | |
| Solana | 40.8 | +24.5 | — | |
| Sui | 40.8 | +24.5 | — | |
| S&P 500 | 44.5 | -0.1 | mid | 2026-07-30 |
| NASDAQ Composite | 30.8 | +8.5 | mid | 2026-07-30 |
| Dow Jones | 38.9 | -0.1 | extended | 2026-07-30 |
| Russell 2000 | 31.4 | -0.2 | mid | 2026-07-30 |
| DAX 40 | 31.9 | -0.2 | mid | 2026-07-30 |
| Nikkei 225 | 23.3 | -0.2 | late | |
| FTSE 100 | 34.6 | -0.2 | late | 2026-07-30 |
| NVIDIA | 41.6 | -0.1 | mid | 2026-07-30 |
| JP Morgan Chase | 50 | 0.0 | extended | 2026-07-30 |
| Gold | 52 | +5.0 | extended | 2026-07-30 |
| Silver | 52 | +5.0 | — | 2026-07-30 |
| Platinum | 62 | +5.0 | — | 2026-07-30 |
| US Dollar Index | 23.8 | 0.0 | extended | 2026-07-30 |
Methodology: How the cycle score works · Bitcoin live dashboard · Previous brief
Generated automatically from Ciklora's daily model outputs; reviewed weekly.
Ciklora is a research and educational tool. It is NOT a financial advisor, broker-dealer, or investment advisor. Signals are based on historical pattern analysis with limited sample sizes. Some assets use proxy models whose correlations can decay or invert in new regimes. Confidence modifier values are calibration factors, not certainty guarantees. Single-model and proxy outputs do not have a meaningful multi-model comparison. Past performance does not guarantee future results. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. If you need financial advice, consult a licensed financial advisor.