Market Cycle Brief — August 21, 2026: BTC 29/100, Ethereum Down 5.1
Cycle telemetry shows Bitcoin in an extended phase at day 1369 of 1450, alongside a mid yearly phase at day 52 of 170. Market scores remain subdued with a delta of -0.1 across major indices and crypto assets. The weekly cycle sits at day 20 of 24 in an extended phase.
Bitcoin
Cycle Score: 29/100, down 0.1 from the prior reading — model date 2026-08-21
| Cycle | Day | Phase |
|---|---|---|
| 4-year | 1369/1450 | extended |
| Yearly | 52/170 | mid |
| Weekly | 20/24 | extended |
Bitcoin registers a cycle score of 29.4, reflecting a delta of -0.1 from the previous reading of 29.5. The asset tracks an extended phase at day 1369 of an expected 1450, while the yearly cycle sits at day 52 of 170 in a mid phase. Weekly telemetry places the asset at day 20 of 24 within an extended phase. The displayed score remains at 29.
Movers
- Ethereum: 24.5 → 19.4 (Δ -5.1) — Ethereum shows a delta of -5.1, moving from a previous score of 24.5 to a current score of 19.4.
- XRP: 24.5 → 19.4 (Δ -5.1) — XRP registers a delta of -5.1, shifting from a previous score of 24.5 to a current score of 19.4.
- Solana: 24.5 → 19.4 (Δ -5.1) — Solana records a delta of -5.1, transitioning from a previous score of 24.5 to a current score of 19.4.
News context
- Bitcoin pushes past $75,000 as rally continues. — coindesk · positive
- Bitcoin breaks above 200-day moving average for first time since November — cointelegraph · positive
- Bitcoin breaks out of six-week range, tops $71,000 as $3 billion in shorts get wiped out — coindesk · positive
- Bearish crypto bets lose record $3 billion as bitcoin tops $71,000 — coindesk · negative
- Treasury buybacks could set up Bitcoin’s next move toward $180,000, says strategist — coindesk · positive
Headlines report Bitcoin advancing past recent resistance levels and clearing a prolonged range while triggering substantial short liquidations. Analysts note that treasury buyback activity may influence future market trajectories.
Markets
| Market | Score | Δ | Phase | Model date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 29.4 | -0.1 | mid | |
| Ethereum | 19.4 | -5.1 | — | |
| XRP | 19.4 | -5.1 | — | |
| Solana | 19.4 | -5.1 | — | |
| Sui | 19.4 | -5.1 | — | |
| S&P 500 | 38.4 | -0.1 | late | 2026-08-20 |
| NASDAQ Composite | 56.4 | -0.2 | mid | 2026-08-20 |
| Dow Jones | 37.5 | -0.1 | extended | 2026-08-20 |
| Russell 2000 | 21.8 | -0.2 | mid | 2026-08-20 |
| DAX 40 | 22 | -0.1 | late | 2026-08-20 |
| Nikkei 225 | 10.7 | -0.2 | late | |
| FTSE 100 | 40.1 | -0.2 | late | 2026-08-20 |
| NVIDIA | 34.9 | -0.2 | late | 2026-08-20 |
| JP Morgan Chase | 50 | 0.0 | extended | 2026-08-20 |
| Gold | 66.9 | -0.1 | early | 2026-08-20 |
| Silver | 66.9 | -0.1 | — | 2026-08-20 |
| Platinum | 76.9 | -0.1 | — | 2026-08-20 |
| US Dollar Index | 32.5 | 0.0 | extended | 2026-08-20 |
Methodology: How the cycle score works · Bitcoin live dashboard · Previous brief
Generated automatically from Ciklora's daily model outputs; reviewed weekly.
Ciklora is a research and educational tool. It is NOT a financial advisor, broker-dealer, or investment advisor. Signals are based on historical pattern analysis with limited sample sizes. Some assets use proxy models whose correlations can decay or invert in new regimes. Confidence modifier values are calibration factors, not certainty guarantees. Single-model and proxy outputs do not have a meaningful multi-model comparison. Past performance does not guarantee future results. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. If you need financial advice, consult a licensed financial advisor.