Market Cycle Brief — October 10, 2026: BTC 40/100, Ethereum Down 7.6
Bitcoin's cycle score stands at 40/100, down 5.6 from the prior reading. 0 of 18 tracked markets improved vs the prior reading.
Bitcoin
Cycle Score: 40/100, down 5.6 from the prior reading — model date 2026-10-10
| Cycle | Day | Phase |
|---|---|---|
| 4-year | 102/1450 | early |
| Yearly | 102/170 | late |
| Weekly | 70/24 | extended |
Bitcoin is on day 102/1450 of its 4-year cycle (early phase). The yearly cycle is in its late phase (day 102/170) and the weekly cycle is extended (day 70/24).
Movers
- Ethereum: 40.5 → 32.9 (Δ -7.6)
- XRP: 40.5 → 32.9 (Δ -7.6)
- Solana: 40.5 → 32.9 (Δ -7.6)
News context
- Sam Altman-backed bitcoin life insurer Meanwhile raises $37.5 million round led by Bain Capital Crypto — theblock · positive
- Thailand opens door to locally listed bitcoin and ether ETFs — coindesk · positive
- Trump's Iran pledge underpins crypto gains as bitcoin bears face liquidation pressure — coindesk · positive
- MARA transfers $81.1 million in bitcoin to Galaxy Digital as strategy pivots to AI — coindesk · positive
- Live updates: Bitcoin climbs back above $83,000; XRP ETFs only crypto funds with inflows Thursday — coindesk · positive
Markets
| Market | Score | Δ | Phase | Model date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 39.9 | -5.6 | late | |
| Ethereum | 32.9 | -7.6 | — | |
| XRP | 32.9 | -7.6 | — | |
| Solana | 32.9 | -7.6 | — | |
| Sui | 32.9 | -7.6 | — | |
| S&P 500 | 38.1 | -0.1 | extended | 2026-10-09 |
| NASDAQ Composite | 41.5 | -0.3 | late | 2026-10-09 |
| Dow Jones | 34.2 | -0.1 | extended | 2026-10-09 |
| Russell 2000 | 38.3 | -0.2 | late | 2026-10-09 |
| DAX 40 | 59.8 | -0.2 | extended | 2026-10-09 |
| Nikkei 225 | 29.8 | -0.1 | extended | 2026-10-09 |
| FTSE 100 | 53.7 | -0.2 | extended | 2026-10-09 |
| NVIDIA | 29.4 | -0.1 | extended | 2026-10-09 |
| JP Morgan Chase | 50 | 0.0 | extended | 2026-10-09 |
| Gold | 35.7 | -5.7 | mid | 2026-10-09 |
| Silver | 35.7 | -5.7 | — | 2026-10-09 |
| Platinum | 45.7 | -5.7 | — | 2026-10-09 |
| US Dollar Index | 50 | 0.0 | extended | 2026-10-09 |
Methodology: How the cycle score works · Bitcoin live dashboard · Previous brief
Generated automatically from Ciklora's daily model outputs; reviewed weekly.
Ciklora is a research and educational tool. It is NOT a financial advisor, broker-dealer, or investment advisor. Signals are based on historical pattern analysis with limited sample sizes. Some assets use proxy models whose correlations can decay or invert in new regimes. Confidence modifier values are calibration factors, not certainty guarantees. Single-model and proxy outputs do not have a meaningful multi-model comparison. Past performance does not guarantee future results. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. If you need financial advice, consult a licensed financial advisor.