Market Cycle Brief — October 12, 2026: BTC 40/100, NASDAQ Composite Down 0.3
Bitcoin's cycle score stands at 40/100, down 0.1 from the prior reading. 0 of 18 tracked markets improved vs the prior reading.
Bitcoin
Cycle Score: 40/100, down 0.1 from the prior reading — model date 2026-10-12
| Cycle | Day | Phase |
|---|---|---|
| 4-year | 104/1450 | early |
| Yearly | 104/170 | late |
| Weekly | 72/24 | extended |
Bitcoin is on day 104/1450 of its 4-year cycle (early phase). The yearly cycle is in its late phase (day 104/170) and the weekly cycle is extended (day 72/24).
Movers
- NASDAQ Composite: 41.8 → 41.5 (Δ -0.3)
- Russell 2000: 38.5 → 38.3 (Δ -0.2)
- DAX 40: 60 → 59.8 (Δ -0.2)
News context
- Trader nets $1.28 million on new 1,000x exchange Papertrade by moving Hyperliquid’s ETH prices — theblock · positive
- Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana ETFs All in the Red for October — decrypt · positive
- How Zcash Plans to Hide Your Keys From AI and Quantum Attacks — decrypt · positive
- Sui Foundation invests $30 million in DATA Network as AI data protocol migrates to Sui — theblock · positive
- XRP Ledger defends emergency patch for unlimited XRP bug — cointelegraph · positive
Markets
| Market | Score | Δ | Phase | Model date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 39.7 | -0.1 | late | |
| Ethereum | 32.7 | -0.1 | — | |
| XRP | 32.7 | -0.1 | — | |
| Solana | 32.7 | -0.1 | — | |
| Sui | 32.7 | -0.1 | — | |
| S&P 500 | 38.1 | -0.1 | extended | 2026-10-09 |
| NASDAQ Composite | 41.5 | -0.3 | late | 2026-10-09 |
| Dow Jones | 34.2 | -0.1 | extended | 2026-10-09 |
| Russell 2000 | 38.3 | -0.2 | late | 2026-10-09 |
| DAX 40 | 59.8 | -0.2 | extended | 2026-10-09 |
| Nikkei 225 | 29.8 | -0.1 | extended | 2026-10-09 |
| FTSE 100 | 53.7 | -0.2 | extended | 2026-10-09 |
| NVIDIA | 29.4 | -0.1 | extended | 2026-10-09 |
| JP Morgan Chase | 50 | 0.0 | extended | 2026-10-09 |
| Gold | 35.5 | -0.2 | mid | 2026-10-11 |
| Silver | 35.5 | -0.2 | — | 2026-10-11 |
| Platinum | 45.5 | -0.2 | — | 2026-10-11 |
| US Dollar Index | 50 | 0.0 | extended | 2026-10-11 |
Methodology: How the cycle score works · Bitcoin live dashboard · Previous brief
Generated automatically from Ciklora's daily model outputs; reviewed weekly.
Ciklora is a research and educational tool. It is NOT a financial advisor, broker-dealer, or investment advisor. Signals are based on historical pattern analysis with limited sample sizes. Some assets use proxy models whose correlations can decay or invert in new regimes. Confidence modifier values are calibration factors, not certainty guarantees. Single-model and proxy outputs do not have a meaningful multi-model comparison. Past performance does not guarantee future results. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. If you need financial advice, consult a licensed financial advisor.