Market Cycle Brief — October 16, 2026: BTC 40/100, FTSE 100 Down 5.8
Bitcoin's cycle score stands at 40/100, unchanged from the prior reading. 3 of 18 tracked markets improved vs the prior reading.
Bitcoin
Cycle Score: 40/100, unchanged from the prior reading — model date 2026-10-16
| Cycle | Day | Phase |
|---|---|---|
| 4-year | 108/1450 | early |
| Yearly | 108/170 | late |
| Weekly | 76/24 | extended |
Bitcoin is on day 108/1450 of its 4-year cycle (early phase). The yearly cycle is in its late phase (day 108/170) and the weekly cycle is extended (day 76/24).
Movers
- FTSE 100: 53 → 47.2 (Δ -5.8)
- Gold: 36.1 → 38.9 (Δ +2.8)
- Silver: 36.1 → 38.9 (Δ +2.8)
News context
- Ripple Prime adds RWA swaps referencing perpetual futures listed on Hyperliquid — theblock · positive
- Ledger unveils Atom Android device with Solana Mobile integration and new tamper protections amid investigation into modified wallets — theblock · positive
- Live updates: Bitcoin bounces back to $82,000 after first fall below $80,000 in one month — coindesk · positive
- Bitcoin ETFs shed $261M as XRP funds buck weekly outflow trend — cointelegraph · negative
- Nearly $1 billion in crypto bets liquidated as bitcoin, ether and XRP slide — coindesk · negative
Markets
| Market | Score | Δ | Phase | Model date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 39.5 | 0.0 | late | |
| Ethereum | 32.5 | 0.0 | — | |
| XRP | 32.5 | 0.0 | — | |
| Solana | 32.5 | 0.0 | — | |
| Sui | 32.5 | 0.0 | — | |
| S&P 500 | 37.5 | -0.1 | extended | 2026-10-15 |
| NASDAQ Composite | 33.5 | -0.2 | late | 2026-10-15 |
| Dow Jones | 25.1 | -0.1 | extended | 2026-10-15 |
| Russell 2000 | 42.7 | -0.2 | late | 2026-10-15 |
| DAX 40 | 58.9 | -0.2 | extended | 2026-10-15 |
| Nikkei 225 | 22.9 | -0.2 | extended | |
| FTSE 100 | 47.2 | -5.8 | extended | 2026-10-15 |
| NVIDIA | 37.5 | -0.1 | extended | 2026-10-15 |
| JP Morgan Chase | 50 | 0.0 | extended | 2026-10-15 |
| Gold | 38.9 | +2.8 | mid | 2026-10-15 |
| Silver | 38.9 | +2.8 | — | 2026-10-15 |
| Platinum | 48.9 | +2.8 | — | 2026-10-15 |
| US Dollar Index | 50 | 0.0 | extended | 2026-10-15 |
Methodology: How the cycle score works · Bitcoin live dashboard · Previous brief
Generated automatically from Ciklora's daily model outputs; reviewed weekly.
Ciklora is a research and educational tool. It is NOT a financial advisor, broker-dealer, or investment advisor. Signals are based on historical pattern analysis with limited sample sizes. Some assets use proxy models whose correlations can decay or invert in new regimes. Confidence modifier values are calibration factors, not certainty guarantees. Single-model and proxy outputs do not have a meaningful multi-model comparison. Past performance does not guarantee future results. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. If you need financial advice, consult a licensed financial advisor.