Market Cycle Brief — July 16, 2026: BTC 24/100, NASDAQ Composite Down 0.2
Bitcoin's cycle score stands at 24/100, unchanged from the prior reading. 0 of 18 tracked markets improved vs the prior reading.
Bitcoin
Cycle Score: 24/100, unchanged from the prior reading — model date 2026-07-16
| Cycle | Day | Phase |
|---|---|---|
| 4-year | 1333/1450 | extended |
| Yearly | 464/170 | extended |
| Weekly | 16/24 | late |
Bitcoin is on day 1333/1450 of its 4-year cycle (extended phase). The yearly cycle is in its extended phase (day 464/170) and the weekly cycle is late (day 16/24).
Movers
- NASDAQ Composite: 27.5 → 27.3 (Δ -0.2)
- Russell 2000: 52.2 → 52 (Δ -0.2)
- DAX 40: 28.8 → 28.6 (Δ -0.2)
News context
- Live updates: Bitcoin rises near $65,000 as markets get more good inflation news — coindesk · positive
- ‘Hugely positive’ meeting on Thursday with Trump to discuss ethics raises hopes for passage of sweeping crypto legislation — theblock · positive
- Stanford study says 5-minute Bitcoin prediction markets enable settlement manipulation — cointelegraph · positive
- Tokenization startup Tradable plans to bring $1 billion worth of private credit assets to Stellar — theblock · positive
- AI agentic payments enter mainstream as Visa, Mastercard, Ripple back x402 standard — coindesk · positive
Markets
| Market | Score | Δ | Phase | Model date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 23.8 | 0.0 | extended | |
| Ethereum | 18.8 | 0.0 | — | |
| XRP | 18.8 | 0.0 | — | |
| Solana | 18.8 | 0.0 | — | |
| Sui | 18.8 | 0.0 | — | |
| S&P 500 | 40.3 | -0.1 | mid | 2026-07-15 |
| NASDAQ Composite | 27.3 | -0.2 | mid | 2026-07-15 |
| Dow Jones | 31.1 | -0.1 | extended | 2026-07-15 |
| Russell 2000 | 52 | -0.2 | early | 2026-07-15 |
| DAX 40 | 28.6 | -0.2 | mid | 2026-07-15 |
| Nikkei 225 | 26 | -0.2 | late | |
| FTSE 100 | 26 | -0.2 | mid | 2026-07-15 |
| NVIDIA | 37.9 | -0.1 | mid | 2026-07-15 |
| JP Morgan Chase | 50 | 0.0 | extended | 2026-07-15 |
| Gold | 47 | 0.0 | extended | 2026-07-15 |
| Silver | 47 | 0.0 | — | 2026-07-15 |
| Platinum | 57 | 0.0 | — | 2026-07-15 |
| US Dollar Index | 32.5 | 0.0 | extended | 2026-07-15 |
Methodology: How the cycle score works · Bitcoin live dashboard · Previous brief
Generated automatically from Ciklora's daily model outputs; reviewed weekly.
Ciklora is a research and educational tool. It is NOT a financial advisor, broker-dealer, or investment advisor. Signals are based on historical pattern analysis with limited sample sizes. Some assets use proxy models whose correlations can decay or invert in new regimes. Confidence modifier values are calibration factors, not certainty guarantees. Single-model and proxy outputs do not have a meaningful multi-model comparison. Past performance does not guarantee future results. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. If you need financial advice, consult a licensed financial advisor.