Market Cycle Brief — August 2, 2026: BTC 23/100, NASDAQ Composite Down 0.2
Market cycle indicators show Bitcoin in an extended four-year phase and early yearly phase, with a recorded score of 23.1. Broader equity indices display mid to late cycle positioning, while recent security incidents and mining revenue declines weigh on sentiment.
Bitcoin
Cycle Score: 23/100, down 0.1 from the prior reading — model date 2026-08-02
| Cycle | Day | Phase |
|---|---|---|
| 4-year | 1350/1450 | extended |
| Yearly | 33/170 | early |
| Weekly | 33/24 | extended |
Bitcoin registers a cycle score of 23.1, reflecting a delta of -0.1 from the previous reading of 23.2. The asset sits at cycle day 1350 of a 1450-day four-year cycle in an extended phase, while the yearly cycle is at day 33 of 170 in an early phase. The weekly cycle also tracks at day 33 of 24, maintaining an extended classification.
Movers
- NASDAQ Composite: 30.8 → 30.6 (Δ -0.2) — The NASDAQ Composite index shows a score of 30.6, with a delta of -0.2 from 30.8.
- Russell 2000: 31.4 → 31.2 (Δ -0.2) — The Russell index registers a score of 31.2, with a delta of -0.2 from 31.4.
- Nikkei 225: 23.5 → 23.3 (Δ -0.2) — The Nikkei index reports a score of 23.3, with a delta of -0.2 from 23.5.
News context
- Bitcoin cold-wallet attack spreads to 4,500 addresses as losses near $89 million — coindesk · negative
- CZ Warns Bitcoin Holders After $70 Million Wallet Exploit: 'Nothing Is 100%' — decrypt · negative
- How bitcoin cold wallets lost $70 million in an attack that never touched the devices — coindesk · negative
- Bitcoin mining difficulty shrinks 14% from this year's high as plunging revenues force operators to pivot — coindesk · negative
- XRP Ledger upgrade brings back features once pulled over critical bugs — coindesk · positive
Recent reports highlight widespread cold-wallet security breaches and a notable decline in mining difficulty, prompting industry warnings. Concurrently, network development continues with an XRP Ledger upgrade restoring previously disabled features.
Markets
| Market | Score | Δ | Phase | Model date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 23.1 | -0.1 | early | |
| Ethereum | 16.1 | -0.1 | — | |
| XRP | 16.1 | -0.1 | — | |
| Solana | 16.1 | -0.1 | — | |
| Sui | 16.1 | -0.1 | — | |
| S&P 500 | 44.4 | -0.1 | mid | 2026-07-31 |
| NASDAQ Composite | 30.6 | -0.2 | mid | 2026-07-31 |
| Dow Jones | 38.8 | -0.1 | extended | 2026-07-31 |
| Russell 2000 | 31.2 | -0.2 | mid | 2026-07-31 |
| DAX 40 | 31.8 | -0.1 | mid | 2026-07-31 |
| Nikkei 225 | 23.3 | -0.2 | late | 2026-07-31 |
| FTSE 100 | 34.4 | -0.2 | late | 2026-07-31 |
| NVIDIA | 41.5 | -0.1 | mid | 2026-07-31 |
| JP Morgan Chase | 50 | 0.0 | extended | 2026-07-31 |
| Gold | 52 | 0.0 | extended | 2026-07-31 |
| Silver | 52 | 0.0 | — | 2026-07-31 |
| Platinum | 62 | 0.0 | — | 2026-07-31 |
| US Dollar Index | 23.8 | 0.0 | extended | 2026-07-31 |
Methodology: How the cycle score works · Bitcoin live dashboard · Previous brief
Generated automatically from Ciklora's daily model outputs; reviewed weekly.
Ciklora is a research and educational tool. It is NOT a financial advisor, broker-dealer, or investment advisor. Signals are based on historical pattern analysis with limited sample sizes. Some assets use proxy models whose correlations can decay or invert in new regimes. Confidence modifier values are calibration factors, not certainty guarantees. Single-model and proxy outputs do not have a meaningful multi-model comparison. Past performance does not guarantee future results. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. If you need financial advice, consult a licensed financial advisor.