Market Cycle Brief — August 3, 2026: BTC 32/100, Ethereum Up 10.7
Market cycle indicators show mixed conditions across timeframes, with the four-year cycle in an extended phase while the yearly cycle remains early. Bitcoin scores have increased, reflecting shifting momentum alongside broader equity index stability.
Bitcoin
Cycle Score: 32/100, up 8.7 from the prior reading — model date 2026-08-03
| Cycle | Day | Phase |
|---|---|---|
| 4-year | 1351/1450 | extended |
| Yearly | 34/170 | early |
| Weekly | 34/24 | extended |
Bitcoin currently sits at cycle day 1351 of a 1450-day four-year cycle, placing it in an extended phase. The yearly cycle is at day 34 of an expected 170 days, marking an early phase, while the weekly cycle is at day 34 of 24 days, also extended. The model score rose to 31.8 from a previous 23.1, yielding a delta of 8.7 and a displayed score of 32. These metrics indicate shifting momentum within the established cycle structure.
Movers
- Ethereum: 16.1 → 26.8 (Δ +10.7) — Ethereum registered a delta of 10.7, moving its score from 16.1 to 26.8.
- XRP: 16.1 → 26.8 (Δ +10.7) — XRP recorded a delta of 10.7, shifting its score from 16.1 to 26.8.
- Solana: 16.1 → 26.8 (Δ +10.7) — Solana posted a delta of 10.7, advancing its score from 16.1 to 26.8.
News context
- Coldcard Bitcoin Exploit Balloons to $88 Million as Attackers Keep Draining Wallets — decrypt · negative
- Saylor hints at Strategy bitcoin buy after five-week pause as STRC rate stays at 12%: ‘Bitcoin Drive engaged’ — theblock · positive
- SEC keeps Nasdaq bitcoin options on hold after granting CME review — theblock · negative
- Trump Media says $165 million bitcoin transfer to Crypto.com wasn’t a sale — theblock · negative
- Unlike the FTX collapse, the $89 million Coldcard exploit has investors sending bitcoin back to exchanges — coindesk · neutral
Recent headlines highlight security concerns surrounding a hardware wallet exploit alongside regulatory delays for exchange-traded options. Corporate treasury activity and fund inflows continue to draw market attention amid these developments.
Markets
| Market | Score | Δ | Phase | Model date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 31.8 | +8.7 | early | |
| Ethereum | 26.8 | +10.7 | — | |
| XRP | 26.8 | +10.7 | — | |
| Solana | 26.8 | +10.7 | — | |
| Sui | 26.8 | +10.7 | — | |
| S&P 500 | 44.4 | -0.1 | mid | 2026-07-31 |
| NASDAQ Composite | 30.6 | -0.2 | mid | 2026-07-31 |
| Dow Jones | 38.8 | -0.1 | extended | 2026-07-31 |
| Russell 2000 | 31.2 | -0.2 | mid | 2026-07-31 |
| DAX 40 | 31.8 | -0.1 | mid | 2026-07-31 |
| Nikkei 225 | 22.8 | -0.5 | late | |
| FTSE 100 | 34.4 | -0.2 | late | 2026-07-31 |
| NVIDIA | 41.5 | -0.1 | mid | 2026-07-31 |
| JP Morgan Chase | 50 | 0.0 | extended | 2026-07-31 |
| Gold | 52 | 0.0 | extended | 2026-08-02 |
| Silver | 52 | 0.0 | — | 2026-08-02 |
| Platinum | 62 | 0.0 | — | 2026-08-02 |
| US Dollar Index | 23.8 | 0.0 | extended | 2026-08-02 |
Methodology: How the cycle score works · Bitcoin live dashboard · Previous brief
Generated automatically from Ciklora's daily model outputs; reviewed weekly.
Ciklora is a research and educational tool. It is NOT a financial advisor, broker-dealer, or investment advisor. Signals are based on historical pattern analysis with limited sample sizes. Some assets use proxy models whose correlations can decay or invert in new regimes. Confidence modifier values are calibration factors, not certainty guarantees. Single-model and proxy outputs do not have a meaningful multi-model comparison. Past performance does not guarantee future results. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. If you need financial advice, consult a licensed financial advisor.