Market Cycle Brief — August 4, 2026: BTC 48/100, Bitcoin Up 15.7
Bitcoin's cycle score stands at 48/100, up 15.7 from the prior reading. 7 of 18 tracked markets improved vs the prior reading.
Bitcoin
Cycle Score: 48/100, up 15.7 from the prior reading — model date 2026-08-04
| Cycle | Day | Phase |
|---|---|---|
| 4-year | 1352/1450 | extended |
| Yearly | 35/170 | early |
| Weekly | 35/24 | extended |
Bitcoin is on day 1352/1450 of its 4-year cycle (extended phase). The yearly cycle is in its early phase (day 35/170) and the weekly cycle is extended (day 35/24).
Movers
- Bitcoin: 31.8 → 47.5 (Δ +15.7)
- NASDAQ Composite: 30.6 → 45.7 (Δ +15.1)
- Ethereum: 26.8 → 40.5 (Δ +13.7)
News context
- Solo Bitcoin miner nets $200,000 as Coldcard hardware wallet drains rocks sentiment — coindesk · negative
- Bessent’s top crypto adviser Tyler Williams exits US Treasury: Report — cointelegraph · negative
- Jameson Lopp says Coldcard exploit exposes limits of Bitcoin’s ‘don’t trust, verify’ mantra — theblock · negative
- Michael Saylor says he’s never sold his personal bitcoin after Strategy dumps more BTC — theblock · negative
- Kenya moves 30 million academic credentials onto Avalanche blockchain — cointelegraph · negative
Markets
| Market | Score | Δ | Phase | Model date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 47.5 | +15.7 | early | |
| Ethereum | 40.5 | +13.7 | — | |
| XRP | 40.5 | +13.7 | — | |
| Solana | 40.5 | +13.7 | — | |
| Sui | 40.5 | +13.7 | — | |
| S&P 500 | 44.1 | -0.3 | mid | 2026-08-03 |
| NASDAQ Composite | 45.7 | +15.1 | mid | 2026-08-03 |
| Dow Jones | 38.6 | -0.2 | extended | 2026-08-03 |
| Russell 2000 | 30.6 | -0.6 | mid | 2026-08-03 |
| DAX 40 | 33.3 | +1.5 | late | 2026-08-03 |
| Nikkei 225 | 22.6 | -0.2 | late | |
| FTSE 100 | 34 | -0.4 | late | 2026-08-03 |
| NVIDIA | 41.1 | -0.4 | mid | 2026-08-03 |
| JP Morgan Chase | 50 | 0.0 | extended | 2026-08-03 |
| Gold | 52 | 0.0 | extended | 2026-08-03 |
| Silver | 52 | 0.0 | — | 2026-08-03 |
| Platinum | 62 | 0.0 | — | 2026-08-03 |
| US Dollar Index | 23.8 | 0.0 | extended | 2026-08-03 |
Methodology: How the cycle score works · Bitcoin live dashboard · Previous brief
Generated automatically from Ciklora's daily model outputs; reviewed weekly.
Ciklora is a research and educational tool. It is NOT a financial advisor, broker-dealer, or investment advisor. Signals are based on historical pattern analysis with limited sample sizes. Some assets use proxy models whose correlations can decay or invert in new regimes. Confidence modifier values are calibration factors, not certainty guarantees. Single-model and proxy outputs do not have a meaningful multi-model comparison. Past performance does not guarantee future results. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. If you need financial advice, consult a licensed financial advisor.