Market Cycle Brief — August 9, 2026: BTC 37/100, US Dollar Index Down 8.7
Bitcoin's cycle score stands at 37/100, down 0.1 from the prior reading. 7 of 18 tracked markets improved vs the prior reading.
Bitcoin
Cycle Score: 37/100, down 0.1 from the prior reading — model date 2026-08-09
| Cycle | Day | Phase |
|---|---|---|
| 4-year | 1357/1450 | extended |
| Yearly | 40/170 | early |
| Weekly | 8/24 | mid |
Bitcoin is on day 1357/1450 of its 4-year cycle (extended phase). The yearly cycle is in its early phase (day 40/170) and the weekly cycle is mid (day 8/24).
Movers
- US Dollar Index: 32.5 → 23.8 (Δ -8.7)
- Gold: 50 → 52 (Δ +2.0)
- Silver: 50 → 52 (Δ +2.0)
News context
- Trillions in institutional money to flow into bitcoin, says Bitwise's Matt Hougan — coindesk · positive
- Hardware wallet sales in Russia more than double as new crypto rules near — coindesk · positive
- Bitcoin, ether ETFs draw $1.1 billion in best inflow week since April, despite low volume — theblock · positive
- Another Bitcoin infrastructure exploit hits, this time draining Lightning payment servers — coindesk · negative
- New XRP Ledger amendments target $530 million in tokenized Wall Street assets — coindesk · positive
Markets
| Market | Score | Δ | Phase | Model date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 37 | -0.1 | early | |
| Ethereum | 32 | +1.9 | — | |
| XRP | 32 | +1.9 | — | |
| Solana | 32 | +1.9 | — | |
| Sui | 32 | +1.9 | — | |
| S&P 500 | 39.6 | -0.1 | late | 2026-08-07 |
| NASDAQ Composite | 34.7 | -0.2 | mid | 2026-08-07 |
| Dow Jones | 38.4 | 0.0 | extended | 2026-08-07 |
| Russell 2000 | 29.9 | -0.2 | mid | 2026-08-07 |
| DAX 40 | 24 | -0.1 | late | 2026-08-07 |
| Nikkei 225 | 22 | -0.2 | late | 2026-08-07 |
| FTSE 100 | 33.4 | -0.1 | late | 2026-08-07 |
| NVIDIA | 46.7 | -0.2 | late | 2026-08-07 |
| JP Morgan Chase | 50 | 0.0 | extended | 2026-08-07 |
| Gold | 52 | +2.0 | extended | 2026-08-07 |
| Silver | 52 | +2.0 | — | 2026-08-07 |
| Platinum | 62 | +2.0 | — | 2026-08-07 |
| US Dollar Index | 23.8 | -8.7 | extended | 2026-08-07 |
Methodology: How the cycle score works · Bitcoin live dashboard · Previous brief
Generated automatically from Ciklora's daily model outputs; reviewed weekly.
Ciklora is a research and educational tool. It is NOT a financial advisor, broker-dealer, or investment advisor. Signals are based on historical pattern analysis with limited sample sizes. Some assets use proxy models whose correlations can decay or invert in new regimes. Confidence modifier values are calibration factors, not certainty guarantees. Single-model and proxy outputs do not have a meaningful multi-model comparison. Past performance does not guarantee future results. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. If you need financial advice, consult a licensed financial advisor.