Market Cycle Brief — August 12, 2026: BTC 44/100, NVIDIA Down 10.3
Bitcoin's cycle score stands at 44/100, up 7.5 from the prior reading. 6 of 18 tracked markets improved vs the prior reading.
Bitcoin
Cycle Score: 44/100, up 7.5 from the prior reading — model date 2026-08-12
| Cycle | Day | Phase |
|---|---|---|
| 4-year | 1360/1450 | extended |
| Yearly | 43/170 | mid |
| Weekly | 11/24 | mid |
Bitcoin is on day 1360/1450 of its 4-year cycle (extended phase). The yearly cycle is in its mid phase (day 43/170) and the weekly cycle is mid (day 11/24).
Movers
- NVIDIA: 46.4 → 36.1 (Δ -10.3)
- Nikkei 225: 21.5 → 12.4 (Δ -9.1)
- US Dollar Index: 23.8 → 32.5 (Δ +8.7)
News context
- Benchmark sees over 150% upside for Bitdeer on bitcoin mining, AI outlook — theblock · positive
- Bitcoin’s BIP-110 fork is 300 blocks behind BTC and six years from fixing itself — coindesk · negative
- BTCPay offers $190,000 bounty after bitcoin payment servers drained in exploit — coindesk · negative
- New Bitcoin addresses jump as Coldcard exploit pushes users to move funds — theblock · negative
- Software stocks break away from bitcoin: What the rare divergence means for crypto — coindesk · negative
Markets
| Market | Score | Δ | Phase | Model date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 44.4 | +7.5 | mid | |
| Ethereum | 39.4 | +7.5 | — | |
| XRP | 39.4 | +7.5 | — | |
| Solana | 39.4 | +7.5 | — | |
| Sui | 39.4 | +7.5 | — | |
| S&P 500 | 39.2 | -0.1 | late | 2026-08-11 |
| NASDAQ Composite | 28.2 | -0.2 | mid | 2026-08-11 |
| Dow Jones | 38.1 | -0.1 | extended | 2026-08-11 |
| Russell 2000 | 23.5 | -5.8 | mid | 2026-08-11 |
| DAX 40 | 23.4 | -0.1 | late | 2026-08-11 |
| Nikkei 225 | 12.4 | -9.1 | late | |
| FTSE 100 | 32.8 | -0.1 | late | 2026-08-11 |
| NVIDIA | 36.1 | -10.3 | late | 2026-08-11 |
| JP Morgan Chase | 50 | 0.0 | extended | 2026-08-11 |
| Gold | 70.8 | -0.1 | early | 2026-08-11 |
| Silver | 70.8 | -0.1 | — | 2026-08-11 |
| Platinum | 80.8 | -0.1 | — | 2026-08-11 |
| US Dollar Index | 32.5 | +8.7 | extended | 2026-08-11 |
Methodology: How the cycle score works · Bitcoin live dashboard · Previous brief
Generated automatically from Ciklora's daily model outputs; reviewed weekly.
Ciklora is a research and educational tool. It is NOT a financial advisor, broker-dealer, or investment advisor. Signals are based on historical pattern analysis with limited sample sizes. Some assets use proxy models whose correlations can decay or invert in new regimes. Confidence modifier values are calibration factors, not certainty guarantees. Single-model and proxy outputs do not have a meaningful multi-model comparison. Past performance does not guarantee future results. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. If you need financial advice, consult a licensed financial advisor.