Market Cycle Brief — August 15, 2026: BTC 30/100, NASDAQ Composite Up 29.9
Bitcoin's cycle score stands at 30/100, down 0.1 from the prior reading. 1 of 18 tracked markets improved vs the prior reading.
Bitcoin
Cycle Score: 30/100, down 0.1 from the prior reading — model date 2026-08-15
| Cycle | Day | Phase |
|---|---|---|
| 4-year | 1363/1450 | extended |
| Yearly | 46/170 | mid |
| Weekly | 14/24 | late |
Bitcoin is on day 1363/1450 of its 4-year cycle (extended phase). The yearly cycle is in its mid phase (day 46/170) and the weekly cycle is late (day 14/24).
Movers
- NASDAQ Composite: 27.8 → 57.7 (Δ +29.9)
- Russell 2000: 23.1 → 22.9 (Δ -0.2)
- DAX 40: 23.1 → 22.9 (Δ -0.2)
News context
- Norway sovereign wealth fund sees indirect bitcoin exposure hit all-time high, with Strategy accounting for 86%: K33 — theblock · positive
- JPMorgan shuttered its banking relationship with predictions platform Polymarket: FT — coindesk · negative
- Trump-backed World Liberty wins conditional bank charter from federal regulator — coindesk · positive
- Cboe seeks SEC nod for first US 3x bitcoin and ether ETFs — theblock · positive
- Israel’s largest bank taps Galaxy to offer Bitcoin, Ether, Solana trading — cointelegraph · positive
Markets
| Market | Score | Δ | Phase | Model date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 29.8 | -0.1 | mid | |
| Ethereum | 24.8 | -0.1 | — | |
| XRP | 24.8 | -0.1 | — | |
| Solana | 24.8 | -0.1 | — | |
| Sui | 24.8 | -0.1 | — | |
| S&P 500 | 39 | 0.0 | late | 2026-08-14 |
| NASDAQ Composite | 57.7 | +29.9 | mid | 2026-08-14 |
| Dow Jones | 37.9 | -0.1 | extended | 2026-08-14 |
| Russell 2000 | 22.9 | -0.2 | mid | 2026-08-14 |
| DAX 40 | 22.9 | -0.2 | late | 2026-08-14 |
| Nikkei 225 | 12 | -0.2 | late | 2026-08-14 |
| FTSE 100 | 32.3 | -0.2 | late | 2026-08-14 |
| NVIDIA | 35.7 | -0.1 | late | 2026-08-14 |
| JP Morgan Chase | 50 | 0.0 | extended | 2026-08-14 |
| Gold | 67.5 | -0.1 | early | 2026-08-14 |
| Silver | 67.5 | -0.1 | — | 2026-08-14 |
| Platinum | 77.5 | -0.1 | — | 2026-08-14 |
| US Dollar Index | 32.5 | 0.0 | extended | 2026-08-14 |
Methodology: How the cycle score works · Bitcoin live dashboard · Previous brief
Generated automatically from Ciklora's daily model outputs; reviewed weekly.
Ciklora is a research and educational tool. It is NOT a financial advisor, broker-dealer, or investment advisor. Signals are based on historical pattern analysis with limited sample sizes. Some assets use proxy models whose correlations can decay or invert in new regimes. Confidence modifier values are calibration factors, not certainty guarantees. Single-model and proxy outputs do not have a meaningful multi-model comparison. Past performance does not guarantee future results. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. If you need financial advice, consult a licensed financial advisor.