Market Cycle Brief — August 16, 2026: BTC 30/100, NASDAQ Composite Up 29.9
Bitcoin's cycle score stands at 30/100, unchanged from the prior reading. 1 of 18 tracked markets improved vs the prior reading.
Bitcoin
Cycle Score: 30/100, unchanged from the prior reading — model date 2026-08-16
| Cycle | Day | Phase |
|---|---|---|
| 4-year | 1364/1450 | extended |
| Yearly | 47/170 | mid |
| Weekly | 15/24 | late |
Bitcoin is on day 1364/1450 of its 4-year cycle (extended phase). The yearly cycle is in its mid phase (day 47/170) and the weekly cycle is late (day 15/24).
Movers
- NASDAQ Composite: 27.8 → 57.7 (Δ +29.9)
- Russell 2000: 23.1 → 22.9 (Δ -0.2)
- DAX 40: 23.1 → 22.9 (Δ -0.2)
News context
- Swiss mega-bank UBS ramps up its Bitcoin exposure with a massive 24-fold surge in ETF call options — coindesk · positive
- Robot maker Unitree is going public. Hyperliquid traders see 4x upside from IPO price — coindesk · positive
- Paul Tudor Jones’ investment firm increases stake in BlackRock's bitcoin ETF after year of selling — coindesk · positive
- Bitcoin could bottom in October, altcoins are ‘basically dead,’ Swan CEO says — cointelegraph · positive
- Wall Street's private blockchain obsession is a 'race to the bottom,' Ethereum advocate Raman warns — coindesk · negative
Markets
| Market | Score | Δ | Phase | Model date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 29.8 | 0.0 | mid | |
| Ethereum | 24.8 | 0.0 | — | |
| XRP | 24.8 | 0.0 | — | |
| Solana | 24.8 | 0.0 | — | |
| Sui | 24.8 | 0.0 | — | |
| S&P 500 | 39 | 0.0 | late | 2026-08-14 |
| NASDAQ Composite | 57.7 | +29.9 | mid | 2026-08-14 |
| Dow Jones | 37.9 | -0.1 | extended | 2026-08-14 |
| Russell 2000 | 22.9 | -0.2 | mid | 2026-08-14 |
| DAX 40 | 22.9 | -0.2 | late | 2026-08-14 |
| Nikkei 225 | 12 | -0.2 | late | 2026-08-14 |
| FTSE 100 | 32.3 | -0.2 | late | 2026-08-14 |
| NVIDIA | 35.7 | -0.1 | late | 2026-08-14 |
| JP Morgan Chase | 50 | 0.0 | extended | 2026-08-14 |
| Gold | 67.5 | -0.1 | early | 2026-08-14 |
| Silver | 67.5 | -0.1 | — | 2026-08-14 |
| Platinum | 77.5 | -0.1 | — | 2026-08-14 |
| US Dollar Index | 32.5 | 0.0 | extended | 2026-08-14 |
Methodology: How the cycle score works · Bitcoin live dashboard · Previous brief
Generated automatically from Ciklora's daily model outputs; reviewed weekly.
Ciklora is a research and educational tool. It is NOT a financial advisor, broker-dealer, or investment advisor. Signals are based on historical pattern analysis with limited sample sizes. Some assets use proxy models whose correlations can decay or invert in new regimes. Confidence modifier values are calibration factors, not certainty guarantees. Single-model and proxy outputs do not have a meaningful multi-model comparison. Past performance does not guarantee future results. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. If you need financial advice, consult a licensed financial advisor.