Market Cycle Brief — September 29, 2026: BTC 41/100, S&P 500 Down 9.1
Bitcoin's cycle score stands at 41/100, unchanged from the prior reading. 0 of 18 tracked markets improved vs the prior reading.
Bitcoin
Cycle Score: 41/100, unchanged from the prior reading — model date 2026-09-29
| Cycle | Day | Phase |
|---|---|---|
| 4-year | 91/1450 | early |
| Yearly | 91/170 | late |
| Weekly | 59/24 | extended |
Bitcoin is on day 91/1450 of its 4-year cycle (early phase). The yearly cycle is in its late phase (day 91/170) and the weekly cycle is extended (day 59/24).
Movers
- S&P 500: 35 → 25.9 (Δ -9.1)
- NASDAQ Composite: 42.6 → 36.4 (Δ -6.2)
- Russell 2000: 32.2 → 31.6 (Δ -0.6)
News context
- Strive pushes bitcoin holdings above 27,400 BTC with latest $94.5 million purchase — theblock · positive
- Solana ETFs draw record $188 million in a week as Bitwise takes two-thirds of inflows — coindesk · positive
- ‘Even more orange’: Strategy buys 1,665 bitcoin for $143 million as total holdings reach 847,666 BTC — theblock · positive
- Tom Lee’s Bitmine tops 6 million ETH after buying another 17,362 ether — theblock · positive
- Chainlink launches new version of its crypto bridge tech 'CCIP' to give apps more control over their security — coindesk · positive
Markets
| Market | Score | Δ | Phase | Model date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 40.6 | 0.0 | late | |
| Ethereum | 37.6 | 0.0 | — | |
| XRP | 37.6 | 0.0 | — | |
| Solana | 37.6 | 0.0 | — | |
| Sui | 37.6 | 0.0 | — | |
| S&P 500 | 25.9 | -9.1 | late | 2026-09-28 |
| NASDAQ Composite | 36.4 | -6.2 | late | 2026-09-28 |
| Dow Jones | 26.2 | -0.2 | extended | 2026-09-28 |
| Russell 2000 | 31.6 | -0.6 | late | 2026-09-28 |
| DAX 40 | 32.3 | -0.5 | late | 2026-09-28 |
| Nikkei 225 | 26 | -0.2 | extended | |
| FTSE 100 | 25.4 | -0.5 | late | 2026-09-28 |
| NVIDIA | 15.6 | -0.4 | late | 2026-09-28 |
| JP Morgan Chase | 50 | 0.0 | extended | 2026-09-28 |
| Gold | 39.1 | -0.1 | mid | 2026-09-28 |
| Silver | 39.1 | -0.1 | — | 2026-09-28 |
| Platinum | 44.1 | -0.1 | — | 2026-09-28 |
| US Dollar Index | 23.8 | 0.0 | extended | 2026-09-28 |
Methodology: How the cycle score works · Bitcoin live dashboard · Previous brief
Generated automatically from Ciklora's daily model outputs; reviewed weekly.
Ciklora is a research and educational tool. It is NOT a financial advisor, broker-dealer, or investment advisor. Signals are based on historical pattern analysis with limited sample sizes. Some assets use proxy models whose correlations can decay or invert in new regimes. Confidence modifier values are calibration factors, not certainty guarantees. Single-model and proxy outputs do not have a meaningful multi-model comparison. Past performance does not guarantee future results. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. If you need financial advice, consult a licensed financial advisor.