Market Cycle Brief — October 4, 2026: BTC 46/100, Ethereum Down 12.2
Bitcoin's cycle score stands at 46/100, down 10.2 from the prior reading. 0 of 18 tracked markets improved vs the prior reading.
Bitcoin
Cycle Score: 46/100, down 10.2 from the prior reading — model date 2026-10-04
| Cycle | Day | Phase |
|---|---|---|
| 4-year | 96/1450 | early |
| Yearly | 96/170 | late |
| Weekly | 64/24 | extended |
Bitcoin is on day 96/1450 of its 4-year cycle (early phase). The yearly cycle is in its late phase (day 96/170) and the weekly cycle is extended (day 64/24).
Movers
- Ethereum: 53.1 → 40.9 (Δ -12.2)
- XRP: 53.1 → 40.9 (Δ -12.2)
- Solana: 53.1 → 40.9 (Δ -12.2)
News context
- Payments firm OpenPayd targets year-end Nasdaq listing to fund U.S. expansion and acquisitions — coindesk · positive
- Trump is expected to appoint Jay Clayton as new AI czar: Reports — cointelegraph · positive
- Trump Is Hosting Yet Another Meme Coin Dinner: Here Are the Details — decrypt · positive
- NEAR Intents recovers entire stolen $3.8M after ultimatum to exploiter — cointelegraph · neutral
Markets
| Market | Score | Δ | Phase | Model date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 45.9 | -10.2 | late | |
| Ethereum | 40.9 | -12.2 | — | |
| XRP | 40.9 | -12.2 | — | |
| Solana | 40.9 | -12.2 | — | |
| Sui | 40.9 | -12.2 | — | |
| S&P 500 | 25.5 | -0.1 | late | 2026-10-02 |
| NASDAQ Composite | 35.5 | -0.3 | late | 2026-10-02 |
| Dow Jones | 25.9 | -0.1 | extended | 2026-10-02 |
| Russell 2000 | 30.8 | -0.2 | late | 2026-10-02 |
| DAX 40 | 31.7 | -0.2 | late | 2026-10-02 |
| Nikkei 225 | 25.4 | -0.2 | extended | 2026-10-02 |
| FTSE 100 | 49.2 | -0.1 | extended | 2026-10-02 |
| NVIDIA | 15.1 | -0.2 | late | 2026-10-02 |
| JP Morgan Chase | 50 | 0.0 | extended | 2026-10-02 |
| Gold | 45.2 | -0.1 | mid | 2026-10-02 |
| Silver | 45.2 | -0.1 | — | 2026-10-02 |
| Platinum | 55.2 | -0.1 | — | 2026-10-02 |
| US Dollar Index | 50 | 0.0 | extended | 2026-10-02 |
Methodology: How the cycle score works · Bitcoin live dashboard · Previous brief
Generated automatically from Ciklora's daily model outputs; reviewed weekly.
Ciklora is a research and educational tool. It is NOT a financial advisor, broker-dealer, or investment advisor. Signals are based on historical pattern analysis with limited sample sizes. Some assets use proxy models whose correlations can decay or invert in new regimes. Confidence modifier values are calibration factors, not certainty guarantees. Single-model and proxy outputs do not have a meaningful multi-model comparison. Past performance does not guarantee future results. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. If you need financial advice, consult a licensed financial advisor.